spoiler week?

ESPN Magazine Rated Penn State Best overall Student Section as well as Most Fun, 2nd Most Creative and 4th Loudest

ESPN Magazine picked Wisconsin as the Nastiest Student Section. After visiting at the UW-UM game a few years ago I would agree

The Big Ten Averages 6.3 yards per pound of running back. That ratio is best among all conferences despite the fact the Big Ten backfields averaged 11 lbs heavier than the next nearest conference (source ESPN Magazine August 25, 2008)

Michigan has the best average finish of any Big Ten football team since 2003 (1.8 place vs. 2.0 averages for Ohio State. Iowa is 3rd at 4.2 and Wisconsin 4.8)


Spoiler Week?

On paper the Big Ten should win all 11 of their games this week, Only Penn State plays another BCS conference team meaning we’ve scheduled more cupcakes this week than last week when Illinois played Mizzou and Michigan State played Cal.

The MAC, the WAC, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and Conference USA make up the non BCS conferences. Of these smaller conferences, the Mountain West wins a respectable 38% of the time and includes Utah and Fresno State the 2 schools that have beaten more BCS teams than any other non BCS. The performance drops off considerably with CUSA next at 18%, the WAC at 16% the MAC at 11% and finally the Sun Belt at 5%.

In terms of total games played against BCS schools, The MAC has played the most by far: 162. Then comes Conference USA- 118, then the Sun Belt at 109 followed by the WAC at 88 and the Mountain West at 73. A couple theories here. First the MAC plays a lot of Big Ten teams often including its worst teams due to proximity (lower travel costs) and desire for big pay days. Second, the WAC and Mountain West are farther away from most BCS schools other than the PAC 10 and therefore they play fewer BCS games.

Third, the Mountain West picks there spots, choosing to have better teams in their conference play BCS schools (i.e. Utah and Fresno State playing Michigan and Rutgers last week vs. sending some bottom dwellers). Of course I’d need more data to back this up. I do think the stats do back up the fact that the Big Ten schedules a weak non conference school loaded with MAC teams.

Let’s look at this week’s games and see where the Spoilers might be

Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan. Despite Mr. Hoyer’s challenges I can’t see the Spartans losing expect a lot of Ringer. By the way that Dell kid (WR) flew under the radar in terms of national media but he had over 200 yds receiving including several very good catches for State

Michigan vs. Miami, OH. Ok despite Miami losing to Vandy last week this isn’t as easy as it sounds. Vandy turns out is a pretty good team and Michigan it turns out is not. Unlike years past where the Wolverines could grind out a win via the run…M will have to rely on the defense and avoid special teams big plays in order to make sure this is a W. But this looks like Big Ten 2-0 for these two games

Minnesota at Bowling Green. Well BG beat Pitt and Minnesota barely beat NIU. The Gophers are away and help the MAC keep their 11% winning percentage against BCS in tact. Big Ten 2 MAC 1

Illinois vs. E. Illinois. The Illini use to need these 1AA games to prop up their record..No logger. EIU is a good 1AA school but no match here…cupcake supreme

Wisconsin vs. Marshall. The Thundering Herd continues to improve. I think they are I the CUSA? I forget admittedly I can’t check the Net as I am flying home as I right this entry.
Badgers should win regardless

Ohio vs. Ohio State..Hmm even without Beanie Wells ad despite Ohio playing better one has to say this should be another Buckeye big win as they tour the intrastate pastries. Again I think Ohio is CUSA but maybe not? Feel free to correct me on these if I am wrong

Murray State at Indiana…the Hoosiers continue to feed at the dessert trough in non conference play. This schedule is embarrassing!

N. Colorado at Purdue. Wasn’t NCU the school where one punter stabbed another trying to get his job? This is the opener for the Boilermakers and should be a win

Florida International vs. Iowa. Not to be confused with Florida Atlantic…this Florida school is YEARS away from being competitive. The Hawkeyes roll to 2-0

These weeks BCS games

Northwestern by 6 over Duke. Our small bright school against the ACC’s. Our conference is infinitely better than the ACC this year and Northwestern is not a cellar dweller like Duke is. The home team and NU was shaky on offense in the first half last week. But I would say the Cats win and beat the spread

Penn State by 15 over Oregon State. OSU was upset by Stanford but scored a lot of points. Game is at Penn State. Nittany Lions suspended 4 more players, one kicked off the team for good. All things being said, Penn State wins by more than 15 but barely more. Oregon State was supposed to be a pretty good team this year..this could be the upset of the week in terms of point spread