Predictions from the "experts" and media

At some point maybe at the end of the season we will compare how well the pre-season polls match up with the final BCS poll to see which publications offer the most accurate prognostication. Have you ever seen a publication rate itself in this manner? I have not.

Long time readers will remember that I in fact do come clean and share how well I predicted. Admittedly I have tended to make my predictions only for the Big Ten season not the entire schedule. Last year I made my conference selections BEFORE the first game of the entire season however I predicted only the Big Ten standings..I’ll explain why I am switching back to the old formula in a later post.

I took the main 5 pre-season polls, if you have another one I should include I will be happy to add it in an amended post, just comment below. I included a couple of new columns. First I used the average rating to predict conference placing. Note these are NOT my predictions. Secondly I wanted to show which schools had wider variances in rankings than others.

For 5 schools; Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern and Iowa there are only 2 data points as the other 3 polls only rate the top 40 or so schools based on votes for the Top 25. The variance of these schools therefore is limited.

The Delta for Ohio State is a whopping One but that isn’t much of a surprise. Wisconsin however is amazingly consistent among the pollsters. Is anyone else surprised at this lack of variance or more surprised by the average ranking?

By far Michigan has the biggest delta ranging from a 24th place by USA Today to a 54th by Sports Illustrated. I explain this by several factors: Michigan has a new coach and virtually a completely new set of offensive players. No one else has fewer returning starters on offense. Secondly it could be that after 20 years of often over ranking the Wolverines someone at SI finally said enough and trashed them this year. USA Today and Athlon are among the publications that always tend to give Michigan the benefit of the doubt.

Michigan State has a healthy variance as well which can be explained several ways. First my guess is some of the lower rankings are based on people not doing their homework and realizing the job the coaching staff at MSU has done. Second, a number of publications and voters have seen 3 decades of roller coaster Spartan teams (sometimes within the same game! And are leery of ranking this team too high this year.

Last comment. I threw Utah into this post to show how it’s not so crazy to think Michigan is the underdog in Week 1.


AP ESPN USA Today SI Athlon Conference Finish Delta
Illinois 20 22 19 23 16 3 7
Indiana NR NR NR 82 65 10 17
Iowa NR NR NR 31 38 7 7
Michigan 31 37 24 54 28 5 30
Michigan State 35 31 40 38 49 6 18
Minnesota NR NR NR 78 78 11 0
Northwestern NR NR NR 50 53 8 3
Ohio State 2 3 3 2 2 1 1
Penn State 22 20 22 22 23 4 3
Purdue NR NR NR 59 54 9 5
Wisconsin 13 12 12 10 12 2 3