What's up the weekend

Wow, the conference race is already narrowing? After a pre-season of mostly yawns we quickly began to whittle down the teams with a chance to go to the Rose Bowl. Or did we? The 2 biggest games last weekend were the Penn State win over Illinois and the Wisconsin loss to Michigan.

Most people including myself felt the Illini-Nittany Lions game would impact the race and favored Penn State. VERY FEW people thought Wisconsin was going to lose to Michigan especially if they watched the first half. So now as a result of last week we have Ohio State and Penn State as clear favorites with Michigan State next, Northwestern as the Wildcat Wildcard and of course Wisconsin and Illinois looking for some losses by these 4 to get back into contention.

What about this week?

Well Illinois and Wisconsin have MUST win games. The Illini face Michigan in Ann Arbor and despite renewed optimism, a strong defense, a well conditioned team, I don't see Michigan avoiding more turnovers, I don't see them being able to contain Illinois offense as well as they did Wisconsin's so I see the Illini back on track.

Wisconsin faces Ohio State at home, in front of their crazy crowd at night! Unfortunately I don't think the crowd will make up for Ohio State's multi-threat offense (Pryor and Wells) and Wisconsin's bonehead offensive play calling. Unless Wells gets hurt in this game, it's the Buckeyes and the Badgers are out of the Rose Bowl race.

Michigan State can continue to prove they are NOT the Spartans of old by finishing off Iowa at home. The Hawkeyes have lost 2 games in a row they were winning and are not showing much heart..let alone matching the talent of the Spartans. MSU can probably get a lead on the ground then give Hoyer enough protection to pick apart the Hawkeyes..and Ferentz is clearly to most over paid coach in the conference.

Penn State should roll over Purdue. That said, the Boilermakers have given some teams a scare in the past including Oregon this year. They clearly have the ability to score points. They clearly have the ability to give up a lot of points..which is exactly what will happen Saturday...Nittany Lions continue to roll.

Indiana vs Minnesota. Loser of this game secures the chance to finish 11th in the conference as Michigan probably will win 3 conference games after all. I think the Hoosiers, despite flashes of brilliances on offense lose to the Golden Gophers

Todays' Picks

Ok first week of the conference race and let me first again state my complete displeasure of the fact that each team only plays 8 opponents out of a possible ten. I will share this week what an unfair advantage that is for a couple of teams this season. I know that some years some teams will always have the better home schedule etc. But by not playing the same 2 teams for a two year period you can have a big advantage.

One example, for 2009 and 2010, Michigan State is expected to be a competitive team in the conference. They do NOT play Ohio State! This means they skate by having to play a perennial power AND they skip Pryor in probably his peak years as a college QB before moving on to the NFL. But I am getting ahead of myself

This week:

Michigan State plays Indiana and I think we may see in a week or two if Indiana is indeed the weakest team in the conference. Lewis is a strong QB but one has to believe that the Spartans will chew up the Hoosier defense with a lot of running.

I am not sold on either Iowa or NU but I give the nod to the Hawkeyes since it is their home field and they had at least one tough test against an improving Pitt team.

Minnesota is clearly a better team than last year but they are not this years version of the 2007 Illini...they are at least a year away. The Buckeyes with Wells win this one at home!

Michigan Wisconsin. Michigan loses it's first Big Ten home opener in 23 years UNLESS the defense holds the Badgers to under 21. Michigan MIGHT pull off one long drive, one Barnum Bailey TD with McGuffie front and center and MAYBE a short field TD based on a defensive led turnover....THAT'S best case. If UM plays anywhere nearly as sloppy here as they did at ND or as flat as they did against Miami it will be embarrassing. I think Badgers win by 10 or less

Purdue vs Notre Dame. I am not impressed with Notre Dame despite what they did to Michigan. Their running game is weak, but Clausen has gotten better. If this is a high scoring game I give it to Purdue, lower scoring game allows the Domers to sneak a win. I hate Notre Dame and I am a Big Ten fan so this one I call for Purdue!

Yes it is a White Out at State College,PA which along with Wisconsin creates the craziest home advantage in the conference. We will begin to see how good Penn State is tonight if they win by more than a TD. The Illini are good but not great...although if they pull this upset on the road..well I have to rethink that statement. I think the winner of this game challenges OSU for the title..wow this early in the season a big game for sure!

Enjoy its a great day for football!

It's not the Big One Little Ten afterall! Predictions

Ok, the Big Ten looks like it might be a bit closer than I originally had discussed in the pre season. There are several reasons for this change

1) Ohio State looks mortal between Beanie not being 100% and the QB situation being up in the air.

2) Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State are playing better than expected at least by me. It's really hard to know how good Penn State is, however I think the winner of the Penn State Illini game Saturday is in the hunt for sure.

So here are my predictions and yes it's much easier to make these now vs before the first game of the season. However with the gained knowledge my self expectations are much higher. I would expect that my total wins differential should be less than 11 meaning less than 1 per team plus or minus. Guessing a team will go 3-5 and they go 5-3 is just as bad as guessing 5-3 and they go 2-5.

I've also posted my predictions within an Excel workbook so you can enter yours and see how you compare with mine and friends of yours at the end of the season. You can get that by visiting the Downloads page on the website or just click here .

If you are really brave you can go public with your pics either by commenting here, or entering the contest on the Fansofthebig11 social network site. Go to Forums for more info there.

Ohio State 7-1
Illinois 6-2
Penn State 6-2
Wisconsin 5-3
Michigan State 5-3
Purdue 4-4
Iowa 3-5
Northwestern 3-5
Minnesota 2-6
Michigan 2-6
Indiana 1-7

I might be selling UW and MSU short but I think in both cases their QBs will be unable to rally their teams if they fall behind in tough games. Northwestern is one of the worst 4-0 teams I've seen and Minnesota, while much better than last year is still a year away from a true bowl team.

Michigan has a tough schedule and frankly is a circus act on offense and the defense is good but not great and therefore they will lose every game among the Top 5 teams in the league for sure. This season is pay back for MSU and Penn State over the Wolverines.

I would be surprised if any other team cracks the Top 5 beyond who I have listed and I will be pretty surprised if the Buckeyes lose more than 1 Big Ten game. But hey the arguing and the season begin!

Last of the Non Conference weeks!

I will save my Rant about the 4 non conference games each team schedules and Bye weeks later. This week Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois are all off this week.

Once again there are very few games of interest beyond following every game your favorite team plays. So here are my comments on a few

Ball State vs. Indiana. Ball State is better than most of us think and currently 2-0. Indiana had the week off last week and have had plenty of time to prepare. Call this one the battle of the QBs. Will long ball Nate Davis score more offense for Ball State than emerging star dual threat Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis? Indiana wins this one in a high scoring game

Central Mich vs Purdue. The Boilermakers needs to beat this competitive MAC team who has played Georgia, to show they aren't going to fade into the lower half of the Big Ten. The Oregon game showed they have the potential to play competitively. These 2 teams played in the Motor City Bowl last year and it was 51-48 Purdue. I predict a Purdue win with the total points being over 70 for sure.

Iowa vs. Pittsburgh. Iowa has played much better and a win over another BCS conference team would show me that this team could be 4-4 (8-4) in Big Ten play this season. Pitt hasn't looked good in either of its 2 games, losing to Bowling Green and letting Buffalo keep it close. Pitt has home field advantage which could keep it close, but the Big Ten needs this one! Iowa by a TD

Notre Dame at MSU. The Spartans are a much better offensive team than Michigan, there is no Irish home field advantage, no 1980 National Championship reunion. What the Irish do have is an improved offensive line and Clausen is improved. Ringer should be able to wear down the Irish defense and rack up more yards. This is a Spartan win by more than 10..HOWEVER a close game that requires Hoyer to lead the team back...I would be very nervous so State needs to make sure they don't fall beyond by more than a TD at any point of the game

So Brett Bieleman looks like a Badger right? C'Mon admit it...Name a current or past coach that reminds you of his mascot..I have one in mind I will share on Sunday but would love to hear others..

Ok so maybe Brett's head is a little thinner than Bucky's but still

Not a great weekend...some rants and raves

Rants.....

Coach Rod..stick with Threet and be done with the 2 QB rotation. He is our best chance at winning any more games beyond Toledo and most likely will be our starter for most or all of next year vs a true freshman..

Purdue...way to grab defeat from the jaws of victory..never trust kickers if you can avoid it in big games!

Hey Buckeyes last time I checked Beanie didn't play defense. Granted you were an underdog due to being on the road and not having your best offensive weapon..underdog yes...but you were dogs period

Michigan...the game was just was wet for ND as it was for you learn to hold onto the damn football!

Raves....

Javon Ringer, 43 carries in that slop and no fumbles..you are a MAN

Badgers....way to survive questionable refs, a tough opponent and being on the road. Oh yeah and a QB injury...nice gutcheck win!

Sam McGuffie, I swear you won't survice the season if you have to carry the ball 20+ times each game but you were the one bright light for the Wolverines

Terrell Pryor, I was wrong you did get some kep reps and did well in your first big game

Penn State..keep rolling through the cream unlike the rest of the conference who plays the occassional flat game.

Iowa in years past this would have been an upset game you lose, nice win over your in state rival!

5 games that matter

This week things get much more interesting in terms of the non conference schedule.

Iowa plays in state rival Iowa State a game which has often been a waterloo for Iowa. While ISU is not set to challenge for the BCS bowls, this will be a good test of whether Iowa has a chance to be a legitimate contender for a mid to higher tier bowl game. I do believe the Hawkeyes have improved and will win this game.

Michigan plays Notre Dame. The game between the 2 winningest programs in college football and also two teams that are not playing at the level that achieved those records. ND and Charlie Weis have more to lose here. They need to try and avenge the 38-0 destruction that took place last year in Ann Arbor. ND had their year of "unproven offensive players" last year.

Despite Charlie Weis crack this summer...Michigan fans are not going to make excuses. Michigan always wants to beat ND and a win would show some hope that this team can beat average Big Ten teams. As weak as ND appears to be relative to normal expectations..a win Saturday would be a boost to the Wolverines. For Notre Dame a loss here means the beginning of the end for Charlie Loudmouth. Given it's at South Bend and how weak the Michigan offense is, sad to say the Big Ten takes a loss here.

Wisconsin vs Fresno State. Well Alvridge played better last week at QB and we know the Badgers can run. Freson State has shown they are a tough team although they beat Rutgers who is really not very good this year. A win here would be a signature game for Fresno State in their effort to crash the BCS, a loss means they fight for a 2nd/3rd tier bowl spot at best. The game is at Fresno State but the Badgers should grind out a win..just hope they don't get down 2 touchdowns again.

Purdue vs Oregon. This would be a great win for the Big Ten as Oregon is rated higher and Purdue isn't even considered a Top 4 Big Ten team this season whereas Oregon certainly is within the Pac 10. The game is at Purdue and Matt Painter certainly has the experience needed for a big day. I am hoping for the upset, that Purdue shows a defense strong enough to stop Oregon from scoring 35 or more...but I think this one goes to Oregon.

Ohio State vs USC. Well Beanie isn't playing and one has to say the hopes of the Buckeyes rests on their defense keeping the Trojans out of the end zone and creating a short field for its offense via turnovers. A win at SC under these conditions would be heroic almost as much as the win over Miami a few years back for the BCS title. Given how little Pryor played last week when the game with Ohio was close..does anyone think he will get significant opportunities here? Is the risk for making mistakes too high to warrant the potential big play/series he could spark with his legs?

In summary I think we are looking at 2-3 of the big games. A 5-0 run this week would go a LONG WAY to shutting up the national media and disway my own fears about the strength of the conference.

This weak EVERYONE IN THE BIG TEN needs to be a Badger, Hawkeye, Wolverine, Boilermaker, Buckeye fan GO BIG TEN

Top Ten Most obnoxious fan bases

Well FoxSports.com listed the top 10 most obnoxious fans among college football teams. Well The Big 11 scored with 2 schools...and you can guess which ones. There is a direct correlation in Lisa Horne's list and schools with a long tradition of winning.

She has Ohio State at number 7.. and complains about what a big deal about dotting the "i" and how they scatter when they lose the big games.. and took a shot at them almost losing to Ohio.

Of course Michigan was rated #2 on the list, and of course is #1 on the winningest list.. but Horne's shots relate to 2 years ago and the complaining about not getting a rematch with Ohio State. Funny I remember only SOME people complaining about that. But Horne goes on to say how nuts we are to assume anyone else cares about the rivalry. Someone might want to let Ms Horne in on the fact almost every football expert rates this rivalry in the Top 5 overall.

Anyway read the rest for yourself...no big surprise who is #1

Rants and Raves from Saturday

Raves first..

Actually apologies to the following schools and players; Minnesota not only beat Bowling Green they destroyed then 42-17 and showed they are better than last year. Wisconsin's QB Alvridge bailed out a struggling Badger offense through his passing until the running game got going.

Raves also for Penn State for destroying Oregon State and to Iowa for pitching a shut out and I guess the conference for going 11-0 despite a mostly cream puff schedule.

Rants

The Buckeyes cast more doubt on the conference by playing Ohio so flat. I do think it was a bit of looking past Ohio but it also showed a weak offense without Beanie Wells. Let's hope both get healthy by next Saturday against USC.

The Michigan offense is scary bad. They had a few good plays especially by Sam McGuffie and Michael Shaw although Shaw hurt his groin early. The team took a step BACKWARD in the vertical passing department and is very unsettled at QB.

The schedule...let's face it non of the games were worth watching unless your favorite was playing this week.

spoiler week?

ESPN Magazine Rated Penn State Best overall Student Section as well as Most Fun, 2nd Most Creative and 4th Loudest

ESPN Magazine picked Wisconsin as the Nastiest Student Section. After visiting at the UW-UM game a few years ago I would agree

The Big Ten Averages 6.3 yards per pound of running back. That ratio is best among all conferences despite the fact the Big Ten backfields averaged 11 lbs heavier than the next nearest conference (source ESPN Magazine August 25, 2008)

Michigan has the best average finish of any Big Ten football team since 2003 (1.8 place vs. 2.0 averages for Ohio State. Iowa is 3rd at 4.2 and Wisconsin 4.8)


Spoiler Week?

On paper the Big Ten should win all 11 of their games this week, Only Penn State plays another BCS conference team meaning we’ve scheduled more cupcakes this week than last week when Illinois played Mizzou and Michigan State played Cal.

The MAC, the WAC, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and Conference USA make up the non BCS conferences. Of these smaller conferences, the Mountain West wins a respectable 38% of the time and includes Utah and Fresno State the 2 schools that have beaten more BCS teams than any other non BCS. The performance drops off considerably with CUSA next at 18%, the WAC at 16% the MAC at 11% and finally the Sun Belt at 5%.

In terms of total games played against BCS schools, The MAC has played the most by far: 162. Then comes Conference USA- 118, then the Sun Belt at 109 followed by the WAC at 88 and the Mountain West at 73. A couple theories here. First the MAC plays a lot of Big Ten teams often including its worst teams due to proximity (lower travel costs) and desire for big pay days. Second, the WAC and Mountain West are farther away from most BCS schools other than the PAC 10 and therefore they play fewer BCS games.

Third, the Mountain West picks there spots, choosing to have better teams in their conference play BCS schools (i.e. Utah and Fresno State playing Michigan and Rutgers last week vs. sending some bottom dwellers). Of course I’d need more data to back this up. I do think the stats do back up the fact that the Big Ten schedules a weak non conference school loaded with MAC teams.

Let’s look at this week’s games and see where the Spoilers might be

Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan. Despite Mr. Hoyer’s challenges I can’t see the Spartans losing expect a lot of Ringer. By the way that Dell kid (WR) flew under the radar in terms of national media but he had over 200 yds receiving including several very good catches for State

Michigan vs. Miami, OH. Ok despite Miami losing to Vandy last week this isn’t as easy as it sounds. Vandy turns out is a pretty good team and Michigan it turns out is not. Unlike years past where the Wolverines could grind out a win via the run…M will have to rely on the defense and avoid special teams big plays in order to make sure this is a W. But this looks like Big Ten 2-0 for these two games

Minnesota at Bowling Green. Well BG beat Pitt and Minnesota barely beat NIU. The Gophers are away and help the MAC keep their 11% winning percentage against BCS in tact. Big Ten 2 MAC 1

Illinois vs. E. Illinois. The Illini use to need these 1AA games to prop up their record..No logger. EIU is a good 1AA school but no match here…cupcake supreme

Wisconsin vs. Marshall. The Thundering Herd continues to improve. I think they are I the CUSA? I forget admittedly I can’t check the Net as I am flying home as I right this entry.
Badgers should win regardless

Ohio vs. Ohio State..Hmm even without Beanie Wells ad despite Ohio playing better one has to say this should be another Buckeye big win as they tour the intrastate pastries. Again I think Ohio is CUSA but maybe not? Feel free to correct me on these if I am wrong

Murray State at Indiana…the Hoosiers continue to feed at the dessert trough in non conference play. This schedule is embarrassing!

N. Colorado at Purdue. Wasn’t NCU the school where one punter stabbed another trying to get his job? This is the opener for the Boilermakers and should be a win

Florida International vs. Iowa. Not to be confused with Florida Atlantic…this Florida school is YEARS away from being competitive. The Hawkeyes roll to 2-0

These weeks BCS games

Northwestern by 6 over Duke. Our small bright school against the ACC’s. Our conference is infinitely better than the ACC this year and Northwestern is not a cellar dweller like Duke is. The home team and NU was shaky on offense in the first half last week. But I would say the Cats win and beat the spread

Penn State by 15 over Oregon State. OSU was upset by Stanford but scored a lot of points. Game is at Penn State. Nittany Lions suspended 4 more players, one kicked off the team for good. All things being said, Penn State wins by more than 15 but barely more. Oregon State was supposed to be a pretty good team this year..this could be the upset of the week in terms of point spread

Weak One

Well I hate to be right but I'd say my predictions regarding Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan were correct. Michigan's defense was way over rated and the offense was really bad period. 36 yards rushing?

If you are a UM fan you can say your special teams did well, your defense showed up in the second half and Shaw/McGuffie look like they can play pass catching receivers in the spread and both are true Freshman.

Illinois better find a defense or they will miss out on a BCS although Juice Williams showed they will be an offense threat every week.

Jekyll/Hyde QB aka Hoyer for MSU showed he hasn't matured enough to lead the Spartans to a potential New Years Bowl although Cal is a good team and I still see 8-4 as a real chance for the Spartans.

Rest of the games...Buckeyes showed they have a lot of depth on offense. Wisconsin..let me say this again with your QBs you will NOT be a Top Ten team this season. Northwestern, nice second half because your scoring against pathetic Syracuse in the first half was surprising...we think Coach Fitz will have the Cats winning the games they should win this year.

Minnesota...say good bye to your undefeated season next week against Bowling Green, Brewster has a lot of work to do to get this team out of the basement. I can't say anything of note for the remaining games.

Our first three "tests" for the conference have us 0-3 not a good start to dismissing Big Ten bashing around the country!

Predictions of Week One Key Games

There are 3 games of note this week during the non conference season. Here is the line and the over/under for these games.

MICHIGAN 3½ over Utah Total Points 40½
MISSOURI 8½ over Illinois Total Points 60
CALIFORNIA 5 over Michigan State Total Points 56

Illinois faces a very tough test against Mizzou and as big a fan as I am of this team playing onj New Years I don't see the Illini pulling off the upset. I do believe they will keep the game within a TD and thus beat the spread ( I don't bet on point spreads fyi). I also see both team scoring a lot of points so I would take the over.

I am in a quandry here on the MSU Cal game. I would pick the Spartans for sure if this was in E. Lansing. Historically MSU has gotten off to fast starts then peeters out..but Coach Dantonio runs a different program. California tanked at the end of last year but has a good coach as well. Cal's defense is faster and more athletic than in recent seasons and they are switching to a 3-4 to improve against the run. MSU defense will play hard hitting ball. I predict the Bears win, but by less than 5 and the combined score is under 56.

Michigan faces a stronger than you think Utah team with experienced skill players and a defense that understands the spread. Michigan's defense was HORRIBLE against the spread and a spring of playing against a WEAK spread offense won't change that overnight. Please remember our top 4 tacklers graduated...meaning we could be exposed against the run.

We have young running backs playing, inexperienced QB and young depleted O-Line. You will see more turn overs than you would normally expect so I see Michigan losing in a close game but I do believe the 2 teams will each score over 20 points

Sad to say but looks like we are 0-3 in big match ups this week

Great Preview of the Big Ten season via the Chicago Tribune

Teddy Greenstein covers college football for the Chicago Tribune. He has been doing the individual team previews over the past few weeks and they've been pretty good..a couple were a little "iffy" in terms of sharing the possibilities for success of mid tier teams but overall good reads.

Today however Teddy and the Tribune did a great job in my opinion creating a pre-season guide. They covered a lot of the things I've talked about such as non conference schedule strength, question marks different teams have and more.

He put together predictions of how the Big Ten standings and overall win-loss records will be for each team (I'm just doing Big Ten conference records in a couple of weeks) and there was a decent article sharing how low the Big Ten has sunk in terms of the national media and fans around the country.

Earlier this week, Teddy was the first writer I've seen remind everyone that Michigan not only lost all their offensive players but their TOP 4 tacklers from last year. Makes you wonder how the UM defense is getting Top Ten ratings by certain media outlets?

I'd like to add that Scott Shafer was not the first choice of Rich Rodriquez and how much does anyone around here know about him and RichRod's defensive philosophy? Could work out great but rank them in the Top Ten nationally?

To check out the Tribune's coverage on the Big Ten click here

Big Ten coaches rated..

Ok I will point you to this article and you can decide for yourself if they are all wet or not.

Let me share my criticisms after scanning through the 1-119 listing.

1. It is inconsistant. In some cases coaches get great ratings for leading a turnaround for a program in other cases they do not. How does Ron Zook rank 51? I guess maybe due to the Florida job? He is ranked below Charlies Weis...COME ON!!

2. First time head coaches getting any kind of ranking...how does Bill Stewart of West Virginia get ranked above anyone

3. Brett Bielema 21st? Seems like a stretch given what he inherited vs a lot of other guys who started with less. That doesn't mean I don't think he has the potential to be a Top 20 coach.

Lastly, I have to beg to disagree with the Number 1 vs Number 2 choice although I will say all the Top Ten are pretty accomplished coaches.

You can see the story posted on Fox Sports

More Preseason Ranking this time CFN top offenses

Actually College Football News ranked all 119 BCS level teams.

Ohio State #3 Wisconsin #9 recvd reviews as part of the Top Ten..

The Rest of Us
Penn State 15, Illinois 19, Northwestern 27, Purdue 31, Michigan State 37, Michigan 47, Minnesota 51, Iowa 58, Indiana 70

Utah 18th, Cal 29 and Missouri #4 all rated higher than Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois their resepective opening week opponents.

I would say Illinois is a bit low, Wisconsin without a returning QB is definitely high and the rest are about right although MSU might be a shade better than 37th.

Predictions from the "experts" and media

At some point maybe at the end of the season we will compare how well the pre-season polls match up with the final BCS poll to see which publications offer the most accurate prognostication. Have you ever seen a publication rate itself in this manner? I have not.

Long time readers will remember that I in fact do come clean and share how well I predicted. Admittedly I have tended to make my predictions only for the Big Ten season not the entire schedule. Last year I made my conference selections BEFORE the first game of the entire season however I predicted only the Big Ten standings..I’ll explain why I am switching back to the old formula in a later post.

I took the main 5 pre-season polls, if you have another one I should include I will be happy to add it in an amended post, just comment below. I included a couple of new columns. First I used the average rating to predict conference placing. Note these are NOT my predictions. Secondly I wanted to show which schools had wider variances in rankings than others.

For 5 schools; Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern and Iowa there are only 2 data points as the other 3 polls only rate the top 40 or so schools based on votes for the Top 25. The variance of these schools therefore is limited.

The Delta for Ohio State is a whopping One but that isn’t much of a surprise. Wisconsin however is amazingly consistent among the pollsters. Is anyone else surprised at this lack of variance or more surprised by the average ranking?

By far Michigan has the biggest delta ranging from a 24th place by USA Today to a 54th by Sports Illustrated. I explain this by several factors: Michigan has a new coach and virtually a completely new set of offensive players. No one else has fewer returning starters on offense. Secondly it could be that after 20 years of often over ranking the Wolverines someone at SI finally said enough and trashed them this year. USA Today and Athlon are among the publications that always tend to give Michigan the benefit of the doubt.

Michigan State has a healthy variance as well which can be explained several ways. First my guess is some of the lower rankings are based on people not doing their homework and realizing the job the coaching staff at MSU has done. Second, a number of publications and voters have seen 3 decades of roller coaster Spartan teams (sometimes within the same game! And are leery of ranking this team too high this year.

Last comment. I threw Utah into this post to show how it’s not so crazy to think Michigan is the underdog in Week 1.


AP ESPN USA Today SI Athlon Conference Finish Delta
Illinois 20 22 19 23 16 3 7
Indiana NR NR NR 82 65 10 17
Iowa NR NR NR 31 38 7 7
Michigan 31 37 24 54 28 5 30
Michigan State 35 31 40 38 49 6 18
Minnesota NR NR NR 78 78 11 0
Northwestern NR NR NR 50 53 8 3
Ohio State 2 3 3 2 2 1 1
Penn State 22 20 22 22 23 4 3
Purdue NR NR NR 59 54 9 5
Wisconsin 13 12 12 10 12 2 3

Are we in the Era of the Big One?

In the 1970s the Big Ten was known as the Big Two and the Little 8 due to the dominance of Michigan and Ohio State and actually this was true for much of the 80s and well even the 90s. However the addition of Penn State, Barry Alvarez coming to Wisconsin and Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State and even Northwestern caused the expression to be minimized.

However we may be entering or may have already entered a new era..the Big One and the Little Ten. Consider what Ohio State has accomplished in the past few years:

2005: Tied with Penn State for Big Ten Championship
2006: All alone, undefeated in Big Ten play
2007: All alone, undefeated in Big Ten play
2008: Ranked #2 in the Nation in pre-season and heavy favorites in the Big Ten

Winning a 3rd sole Big Ten title isn't quite enough to state the case for the Big One, although it comes close given the co-championship in 2005. But looking forward, on paper Ohio State might be able to extend its dominance to 5 or more Big Ten titles in a row.

Rival.com rankings of recruiting classes

2008: Ohio State ranks #4, next Big Ten team is Michigan at #10
2007: Ohio State ranks #15, only Michigan at #12 ranks ahead of them
2006: Ohio State is #12 with only Penn State ahead of them at #6
2005: Ohio State is #12 with Iowa #11 and Michigan number 6

Class of 2009 early ranking..Ohio State #1, Michigan #4 and Michigan State #10

On paper Michigan is the only team that is even close to the year in year out recruiting of the Buckeyes and it will take at least 2 years for Rich Rodriguez to stock his team with offensive players who can handle the completely new offense. Some of Michigan's classes of 2007 and 2006 have already left (Boren and Mallett among others).

But championships aren't won on paper that's why they play the games but when you combine talent with good coaching and stay healthy, Ohio State has a bright future moving into the '10s!

The first of several "experts" talk about the Big Ten Seasons

Sprint it's own YouTube channel. Interesting perspective on Michigan's opening game and talks about the Buckeyes:

Reminder about our website etc

We are launching our Fan Networking site this upcoming week, it has finished it's beta period. You can join (free) by using this link.

Our website is slowing making its way into Fall Football Shape, we keep updating what's new each day on the homepage of Fansofthebig11.com

Finally, both this blog and the website are ad sponsored so we would appreciate you clicking on any of the ads that catch your fancy! Your help is appreciated

Non Conference wish list

Ok I complained about the current Non Conference schedule so here is one game per team I wish was added to this year's schedule.

Illinois vs Clemson: We need more Big Ten ACC games
Indiana vs Notre Dame: Completes the Indiana Championship Tournament
Iowa vs. Nebraska: This would complete the round robin King of Corn tournament (Iowa St)
Michigan vs. California: Two top academic state schools with liberal reputations
Michigan State vs. Alabama: Saban against the school he left for "the big time"
Minnesota vs. Connecticut: Up and coming Big East team against our worst team
Northwestern vs. Vanderbilt: Our small school against the SEC's
Ohio State vs. Georgia: an SEC team before the National Championship..good practice
Penn State vs Pitt: Old Rivalry I remember as a kid...got this one from the Fox Story below
Purdue vs. Air Force: Astronauts against Jet Fighters
Wisconsin vs. Texas: When is the last time you saw the Badgers play a Big 12 school

There are a bunch of other non conference "wish games" offered by Fox Sports.

What a way to ruin the beginning of the season

Well it's that time of year again where instead of focusing on who is winning starting positions and planning tailgates we are bombarded with news of unlawful behavior on the part of "student athletes". While Georgia has now lost 5 players to suspensions, the Big Ten seems to be getting a lot of press with losses throughout the conference

A few samples:

Michigan Kevin Grady suspended for alledgedly driving with .2+ alcohol in his blood, 3 times the legal limit. He is still suspended but "practicing with the team

Wisconsin bum Lance Smith was suspended for UW's five road games last season and now he is off the team for good. The university suspension was handed out after Smith was arrested and charged with battery and disorderly conduct last summer.

Iowa faces an investigation by the state legislature concerning how it handled sexual assault charges by one of its players and a possible cover up .

And the infamous Outside the Lines show on ESPN covering the 46 violations of Penn State football players in recent years. While they may or may not have painted a slanted picture, JoePa's comments that most of his players are 19 or 20 years old and like all young adults, he said, they make mistakes. Yeah typical young adults get into knife fights with teammates?

Get real JoePa..every team has a bad apple or two...you sir have allowed your program to include too many thugs!

Let's hope the "silly season" is over and that teams worry more about injuries than court appearances..

The Fansofthebig11 fan networking site is open

You can go to www.fansofthebig11.ning.com to join. It's going to be a fun place to share photos, swap stories with fellow fans and maybe through a jab or two to fans of your rivals.

I will be keeping an eye on the site and removing spammers and inappropriate content so you can enjoy visiting the site!

I forgot about Illinois

The Illini should be commended by scheduling Missouri, a Top 5 team last year and usually a bowl team. The game is away. Granted they play E. Illinois, Louisiana Lafayette and Western Michigan but at least they play one really tough game

Non Conference Schedule Rant

This is becoming a semi-tradition for me; complaining about Big Ten non conference scheduling. One theory is that conference play is so even that you need 3 or 4 creampuffs to ensure a 7 or 8 win season and thus a bowl bid. I guess if you goal is to get a bunch of mediocre teams into a bunch of mediocre bowls, or more likely mediocre teams LOSING to better bowl opponents..then this is a good strategy.

Look our conference isn't the SEC right now in football...every week is NOT a "playoff level game". Each year we have between 2-4 dogs within the conference, 2-3 really good teams and 4 to 7 average teams who might play tough on a given week.

You want to upgrade the conference? You want a better reputation? Do 2 things; schedule better non conference games and win more bowls.

On the first point, examples of this seasons lame schedulers: Minnesota..what else is new they have Syracuse, Ohio U, Duke and Southern Illinois..got tired of losing to Dakota schools I guess. And then the Hoosiers play Western Kentucky, Ball State, Murray State and Central Michigan..well the Chips might be a test for them. Penn State enters the land of LAME this year with COASTAL CAROLINA?, Oregon State, Syracuse and Temple....

Northwesterm, Wisconsin are also lame. Michigan, who normally fairs well in this area is very borderline. They play Utah who was a bowl team, Notre Dame who might be better than last year, Miami of Ohio and Toledo...if this was a more experienced UM team I would say creampuff city!

Buckeyes score points for playing USC on the road. That game on September 13 is the ONLY marquis non conference game of the WHOLE pre Big Ten season. Purdue plays Oregon and Notre Dame..respectable. Michigan State plays at Cal plus Notre Dame. Iowa plays their rival Iowa State plus a surging Pitt.

Here's a formula I would like to see EVERY Big Ten team schedule moving forward. Either you play one perennial powerhouse ((Top 10) team and 3 puffs, or 2 Bowl level teams and 2 puffs. And make a rule no 3-5 conference performance allowed in a Bowl game.

What do you think?

New season, new Blog lay out

I switched to using Blogger because it's easier to add links to Youtube, Google ads (which help pay the bandwidth bills for the www.fansofthebig11.com website and other cool tools. You can visit last season's posts at the old site .

Football season is around the corner, and I am spending most of my free web time working on a complete upgrade to the site, new logo, new lay out, most importantly new content including updated eSchedules. This year you will be able to download all our schedules and databases without supplying an email address due to popular demand.

Enjoy the upcoming year...lot's of interesting changes in how the Big Ten stacks up